Nuclear fusion is the energy source of the future.

My good friend and colleague, Chris Boch, recently posted on his blog about the naive views of the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright.  I know something about that.

Early in my teaching career, I attended a summer workshop at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab.  The physicist in charge, Andrew Zwicker, is the guy on the left wearing sandals.

It was a worthwhile program because Princeton had a tokamak and was doing actual nuclear fusion research.  We weren’t permitted to take photos in the research lab, but Princeton was interesting.

This is where Albert Einstein lived when he was at the Center for Advanced Study.

This was in the summer of 1998.  That’s the same year that Sylvia Nasar’s book, A Beautiful Mind, about the mathematician, John Nash, was published.  The movie came out a few years later.  We were given a tour of the Center for Advanced Study, and the guide had many interesting stories about John Nash.

I don’t remember any of the stories. 

I don’t recall much that I learned at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab, but three items stuck with me.

• There was a refrigerator in the break room at this prestigious physics lab.  A hand-written sign was taped to the door of the frig.  “This refrigerator is for food only.  Batteries are not food.”    These egg-heads could be as thoughtless as everybody else.
• Professor Zwicker told us that cold fusion wasn’t possible.  Cold fusion was a controversial topic at the time.
• Professor Zwicker told us a plasma physics joke.  “Nuclear fusion is the energy of the future, and it always will be.”  The joke is that nuclear fusion will always be just around the corner.

That brings us back to Boch’s post.  He considers Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy, to be a whack job for telling the BBC that nuclear fusion would power the world in 8 to 15 years.

Almost a half-century ago, Boch was told by his high school physics teacher that nuclear fusion would be figured out in the next decade.  I didn’t start paying attention until I had attended the workshop at PPPL, but since then, nuclear fusion has always been about 10 years away.

The Secretary of Energy is not a physicist.  Chris Wright has the same educational background that I’ve got, but certainly more prestigious.  A Bachelor’s and Master’s in engineering.   Wright may be a wacko, but the interview with the BBC is not evidence of that.

Experts lied to Wright.  Or to be charitable, gave an unrealistically optimistic analysis.

Using my experience with Professor Zwicker as a data point, physicists can be as thoughtless as anyone else and they don’t believe that nuclear fusion is about to save us.  Zwicker was a good guy.  He didn’t seem like the type of person who would dedicate his professional life to futile research.

Zwicker is currently a New Jersey state senator and has been out of physics for 10 years.

A highly credentialed expert is doing innovative work on a promising concept.  Sometimes it doesn’t pan out. 

A bright student chooses a challenging major.  As the student progresses through his education, more specialization is required.  The grad student chooses a research topic based on interest and opportunities.   Grant money and research positions depend on the perception that the research will yield results and the results can lead to practical uses for the knowledge. 

When a highly credentialed expert is thirty years into a research topic, maintaining the perception that the topic is relevant and advancing is necessary to maintain the position and prestige.

There is no easy answer to smart people betting on a scientific long shot.  We need that because if it works out, we get great new stuff.  If it doesn’t work out, the expert has to be honest and adaptable.  They don’t always do that, and it can take decades and billions of dollars to realize that the jig is up.

The rest of us need to be aware of this conflict of interest, and not bet everything on a future breakthrough.   When a technology needs to solve one fundamental issue to fix our problems, don’t bank on it until it’s ready.  When a new medication or procedure may cure an ailment, wait for the research studies to conclude before starting treatment.