Box Office Mojo provides up-to-date ticket sales for movies that are in theatrical release. Looking back 20 years, there is a trend that hasn’t been commented on elsewhere. Based on the trend, movie theaters will close and more movies will be sequels.
For June 4th, the top 10 movies in terms of ticket sales, were listed for this year, and going back in 5 year increments. It stops at 2004 because that’s as far back as Box Office Mojo went.
Look at the ticket sales for the 10th movie relative to the total take for the top 10 movies. Inflation adjusted numbers are provided.
For 2024, the 10th movie take: $20 k, the total take: $903 k.
For 2019, the 10th movie take: $70 k, the total take: $1869 k. (2024 dollars)
For 2014, the 10th movie take: $133 k, the total take: $2206 k. (2024 dollars)
For 2009, the 10th movie take: $137 k, the total take: $1792 k. (2024 dollars)
For 2004, the 10th movie take: $124 k, the total take: $1768 k. (2024 dollars)
This is only for June 4th’s, but the trend isn’t likely to be much different for any day of the year.
In 2024 dollars, the total take for the top 10 movies is about $1.8 billion going back to 2004. In 2024, the take is about half of that.
The unnoticed trend is that, in 2024, the movie in the 10th spot, doesn’t make much money relative to the total take. The 10th movie made about 7% of the total, but starts to drop off in 2019. By 2024, it’s only 2%.
There are many ways to analyze the numbers, but the trend seems pretty clear. If a movie isn’t one of the top 4 or 5 movies, few people are going to see it.
Why would a theater have more than 4 or 5 screens?
When I was a teenager, movie theaters tended to have one big screen. With the movie industry contracting, there isn’t much chance that a big theater would be filled very often.
Streaming isn’t going away. Many studios, like Amazon and Disney are huge companies, so can keep making movies, even at a loss. Smaller studios can produce great movies, like Godzilla Minus One.
Movies aren’t going away, but theaters are going to get smaller with fewer screens. Movies that don’t make it big in theaters, will go to streaming. How do you find them?
A franchise movie is going to get attention reflected from other movies in the franchise. Godzilla x Kong isn’t a great movie, but it’s part of the Monsterverse franchise. Godzilla Minus One is a much better movie, but if they don’t follow up to build a franchise, how would anyone find it in 20 years?