Category: Economics (Page 1 of 4)

Politico: Far Right wants more babies.

Real Clear Politics: Have more babies.

Based on recent articles, we are supposed to worry about not having enough babies and people who worry about not having enough babies.

Back in the 1980’s, before we were afraid all the time, I supported several environmental groups.  Sierra Club, World Wildlife Fund and a few others.  Never Greenpeace, they were already crazy.  World population was an issue of interest, so I supported a group called Negative Population Growth.

They were completely reasonable, but in retrospect, I can see how they could go off-the-rails in a catastrophic way.

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NYT: Paul Krugman insults Ohio

NYT: What’s the matter with Ohio?

These East coast elitist dickheads can’t be very bright because they keep trying to win us over with these articles about why we are so dim.

If you aren’t familiar with him, Paul Krugman is the George Costanza of Nobel prize winning economists.  Krugman could take the opinion that was the exact opposite of everything he thinks, and he would be more correct and respected.

For many years, Ohio has been thought of as a bellwether state: With rare exceptions, whoever won Ohio in a presidential election won the nation as a whole. But in 2020, Donald Trump won Ohio by about eight points even as Joe Biden led the national popular vote by more than four points and, of course, won the Electoral College vote.

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Financial Times: 10 Trends for 2024

This Financial Times article on 10 trends in 2024 is worth reading because FT is pretty balanced and insightful.  To summarize:

  1. Democracy in Overdrive:  Major elections will be occurring all over the world.  A 200 year-old record will be broken when 46% of the global population will have a chance to vote.  Populism is on the rise, so that should be interesting.
  2. Bond Vigilantes versus Politicians:  Politicians like low interest rates, but they aren’t likely to drop very fast.
  3. Backlash Against Immigration:  Immigration is exploding in the Western world, and the citizens don’t like it.
  4. The No-Bust Cycle: Economies are still slowing down, but likely to avoid a classic bust.
  5. European Resilience: Europe already to a hit for the high interest rates, now the US is likely to start feeling the pain.
  6. China is Fading:  Net foreign investment in China is dropping and their economy is in worst shape than the official numbers suggest.
  7. Emerging Outside China:  Emerging economies, like Vietnam, India and Mexico no longer rely on China and are growing.
  8. Dollar Decline:  With the US debt at a record 6% of the GDP, the dollar is losing it’s status in the world.
  9. Splintering the Magnificent Seven:  That is Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft, won’t all rise together.  A.I. is the next big thing, so they are all dumping money into it, but only Nvidia is making money off of it.
  10. Hollywood’s Napoleon Complex:  Ticket sales are about half what they were at the peak in 2002, and down 25% from 2019.  It won’t be getting better.

Some of these are continuations of trends that have been ongoing for a few years, but eventually, some of them will hit big.

Biden Spends $10 Billion on Another Waste of Time

Biden putting $10 billion into high speed passenger trains.

This is another bad idea that we will have to spend a trillion dollars on before we give up.

I’ve ridden the Shinkansen in Japan and the LGV in France, and enjoyed both.  The US is not Japan or France.  America has a well developed rail system, and we use it to carry freight.   

There is a high speed passenger rail project in California.  The cost is estimated to be a quarter-billion dollars per mile.  Biden could spend our money to put down 40 miles of high speed rail or he could have one nuclear power plant built.

WSJ: What Friends Can Teach About Money

WSJ: What Friends Can Teach About Money

WSJ: What Friends Can Teach About Money

Interesting article about how Gen Z and Millennials learn about managing money.  The author does seem to have missed a few things.

A friend offered to pick up the whole tab on her credit card, “for the points.” At the time, six years ago, “for the points” meant nothing to Saint-Vil, now a 30-year-old planning manager in Brooklyn, so he pressed for more details. They lingered over the dim sum meal as a larger conversation unfolded about annual percentage rates, credit-card debt, payment schedules and more.

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When Do You Anticipate Retiring?

 

Can money buy happiness

This website posts the results of an interesting poll conducted by Harris of 2000 adults.

This chart shows at what age a generation feels that a person can retire given the current economic environment.  The site compares the retirement age from the poll know compared to the retirement age from a poll taken a year ago.  Clearly, every generation feels the economic environment now is significantly worse than it was a year ago.  I’d be curious if this information exists for the year before the Covid shut down.

Gen Z (1996 to 2012) are very early in their careers, so may be in college or unsure about careers.  The survey was only people over 18, so kids in school didn’t count.  Perhaps they expect that in decades, the general trend is favorable.  I, and probably they, don’t know anyone who has retired at 49 or 54 years old.  It’s interesting that the year slipped 5 years.  That indicates a lack of confidence in the long-term trend.

As the generations get older, the change from a year ago is smaller.  That makes sense in that there are fewer uncertainties with few decades to go to retirement.

According to Gallup, in 2022, the average age to retire was 61 years old.  Boomers (1946 to 1964) are 59 to 77 years old.  Almost all of the Boomers should be retired.  It’s not at all clear why the expected year of retirement is so far off.  The survey doesn’t say, but perhaps only working people responded.  Any Boomer not currently retired may feel that retirement isn’t likely in the near future.

What Annual Salary is Necessary to be Happy?

Can money buy happiness

This website posts the results of an interesting poll conducted by Harris of 2000 adults.

It’s interesting that the generations agree on the required annual salary to be happy, with the exception of the Millennials.  Boomers (1946 to 1964) are at or nearing retirement, so may be making that much or stable in retirement.  Gen Z (1996 to 2012) are very early in their careers, so may be in college or unsure about careers.  The survey was only people over 18, so kids in school didn’t count.  Gen Z has an amazingly realistic annual salary requirement for people who may still be on their parent’s health insurance and cell phone plan.

What went wrong with the Millennials (1981 to 1996)?  They aren’t making anywhere near the salary they require to be happy.  Way off.  The oldest, at 42 years old are mid-career, and should have a good idea what is realistic.  The youngest, at 27 years old, should be early in a career, but haven’t bought a house.  They should be developing some sense of what’s coming up, but apparently not.  At that age, it’s difficult to imagine that something amazing will happen to significantly increase their financial situation.  Are they all resigned to never being happy?

That website has many other interesting results.

WaPo: What Scientists Know About Aliens.

WaPo: What We Know About Aliens

It came from space, hurtling at tremendous speed: a mystery object, reddish, rocky, shaped like a cigar. Its velocity was so extreme it had to have come from somewhere far away, in the interstellar realm. The astronomers in Hawaii who spotted it in 2017 named it ‘Oumuamua, Hawaiian for “a messenger from afar arriving first.”

Don’t forget the unexplainable Wow! signal detected by Ohio State in 1977.

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