It isn’t hard to see how the stock market keeps climbing. The federal government borrows a trillion dollars for a stimulus package or a boondoggle, or it doesn’t matter what it’s for, but the money finds it’s way into the equity market, and it keeps going up.
I used to think that eventually, the shit’s going to hit the fan. In 1988, I bought 10 ounces of gold and stashed it in a safety deposit box. Gold kept dropping and languished below the $430 per ounce I had paid for it. Fourteen years later, I sold at $445 per ounce. I’d made $150.
Had I waited 5 more years, I could have tripled my money. I don’t consider buying gold anymore. With a stock, there is a whole company full of employees trying to make it work. Gold is just gambling. The internet makes it easier to research now. Looking at the historical trends, gold tends to go in a direction for several years. It is currently up, so won’t be worth buying for a decade or so.
Gold is currently trading at about 5 times more than I paid for it in 1988. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 2000 in 1988. Now, it’s 20 times that.
I have used several investment strategies since 1988, but a big chunk of my capital has always been in large mutual funds. The Fidelity Magellan fund was my first. An index fund buys stocks in an index, like the Dow Jones Industrials, to mirror the return of the entire group of stocks. The Standard and Poors Index is also popular. Put the money in, and let it ride.
Buying gold or cryptocurrencies is pure speculation. The problem with crypto is that when it’s up, it may be difficult to sell. Buying individual stocks is informed speculation. It’s closer to a March Madness bracket. The investor hopes to have more knowledge than professional money managers. Even the money managers don’t beat the index 80% of the time. However, it is fun to try if you feel you have insight into an emerging trend. Just don’t rely on that strategy.
I would be interested in a government fund. Imagine a mutual fund that attempts to mirror the investments of a high ranking politician. The Nancy Pelosi fund would be very successful because she can invest just before legislation or regulatory action influences a company or sector of the economy.
The shit will hit the fan. It’s impossible to know when, and opportunities are missed by assuming that it will be soon. When it does, we will be encouraged to blame the Boomers and pity the Millennials and Gen Z. Don’t pity them, they took the money. They were the people clamoring to have the government pay off their student loans. Student loans aren’t “forgiven”. They aren’t a punishment. Student loans are a contract that college students enter into with the hope that future earnings will be worth the cost. Young people asked the government to take out a loan to pay their loans.
My Boomer friends didn’t profit from the government. We went to college part-time, worked summers, got help from our parents or paid off the loans. Many of us worked in the public sector, but weren’t paid extravagantly and did our jobs diligently and competently.
Young people should spend less than they earn, and put the extra money in an index fund. That is betting that the party won’t end soon. The US is screwed up, but so is the rest of the world. There are very few countries that don’t have some big risks looming.
Stay out of debt. When the economy collapses, it won’t be all of it, and the debts tend to remain. Debt limits options. Build human capital. Maintain relationships with friends and family. That expands options. Buy a house, and pay it off. That can limit options to relocate, but it provides a base. A bank will foreclose, but a city doesn’t really want to seize someone’s house for failing to pay property tax.
Governments, politicians and the general public will either come to their senses or they won’t. Probably a little of both. Life doesn’t come with guarantees, so pay attention and adapt.