NPR:  Crime in the U.S. fell in 2025. Will the trend continue?

Murders are down 20% from last year, and NPR can’t figure out why.  All crimes are down, and it may not be too hard to figure out.

The Trump administration has deported 600,000 illegal aliens, and another 1,500,000 have left on their own.  Trump said that ICE was going after the worst criminals, but surely many who were deported hadn’t committed violent crime, or maybe any crimes other than illegally being in the United States.

To be pessimistic, let’s assume that only 1 in a hundred are the violent criminals that President Trump promised to target.  Assume that none of the 1.5 million who voluntarily left, were gang associates of the violent criminals. 

ICE has removed 6000 violent criminals and dangerous gang members.  That could account for the entire reduction in violent crime.  Trump’s immigration enforcement has saved 1400 lives.

This graph is from FBI crime statistics for homicide.  The light blue line represents homicides. 

There was a noticeable bump up in 2020, during Covid, then it remains high, and gradually trends down in 2024, then a significant drop in 2025.

The next graph is difficult to make out because it starts in 1995. 

If President Trump continues to vigorously enforce immigration policies, and continues to reinforce ICE enforcement in large cities where the local government has vowed to resist federal authority, homicide rates may reach the lowest level in decades.

All it ever took was enforcing the law.